RAM worth its weight in gold: 5 hidden causes of the 2025 market storm
If you planned to "just add some RAM" to breathe new life into your desktop in 2025, you likely hit a wall. A reinforced concrete one, at that. Memory, which for years was the cheapest and easiest way to speed up a machine, has suddenly become a luxury good.
A 64 GB kit rivalling the price of a game console? That is our new, painful reality.
It is easy to shout "It’s because of AI" and end the discussion. But reality is far more nuanced. It is a fascinating game of interconnected vessels, where silicon physics mixes with corporate calculation and global politics. Let's look at the five "horsemen of the memory apocalypse" that are rarely spoken about out loud.
1. It’s the Physics, Stupid: HBM is Eating Your DDR5
Let's start with the fundamentals. In the world of semiconductors, you cannot cheat physics. We all know NVIDIA needs massive amounts of memory for its AI accelerators. But few realize the physical cost of this production.
HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), used in AI, isn't just standard chips laid flat. These are silicon skyscrapers—multi-layer stacks connected by vertical tunnels.
Key Takeaway: Producing the same capacity in HBM technology consumes about three times more silicon wafer surface area than standard RAM.
Put simply: every silicon wafer dedicated to AI is effectively three wafers that did not become memory for your PC. This is capacity cannibalization on an unprecedented scale. SK Hynix has sold out its capacity for years in advance, effectively removing a gigantic portion of supply from the consumer market. It’s not greed—it’s a lack of space on the production line.
2. The Samsung Paradox: Flight to Servers
In normal times, we would count on Samsung—the giant—to flood the market with product and stabilize prices. But 2025 is not normal. Samsung, struggling with efficient HBM production (and facing low margins around 30%), made a surprising pivot.
Instead of saving gamers and everyday users, the company redirected massive capacity (estimated at 80,000 wafers per month!) toward server RDIMM production.
Why? Pure business math. The AI frenzy created a gap in server rooms too, pushing margins on RDIMM modules to an astronomical 75%. Samsung engaged in strategic arbitrage: sacrificing the consumer market to make a fortune on corporations. It’s a decision that looks great in an Excel sheet, but terrible in individual customers' wallets.
3. Revenge of Old Tech: DDR4 Prices Spike
This is perhaps the most counter-intuitive point on this list. Usually, "old" hardware gets cheaper. Yet in 2025, prices of aging DDR4 memory started chasing brand-new DDR5. How is that possible?
It is a classic supply shock.
- The "Big Three" (Samsung, Hynix, Micron) began phasing out DDR4 production, deeming it obsolete.
- Chinese manufacturer CXMT, which had been flooding the market with cheap chips, suddenly switched tracks to DDR5 under political pressure.
The result? Supply evaporated, but demand remained. DDR4 prices, which scraped the bottom in March ($25), skyrocketed to $85 in just a few months. This is a brutal lesson for companies maintaining older infrastructure—delaying upgrades just became very expensive.
4. Microsoft Tightens the Screw: The End of Windows 10
Hardware isn't the only culprit. A silent killer of low prices is a date: October 14, 2025. This marks the end of support for Windows 10.
For corporations, a lack of security patches is a risk they cannot accept. Instead of paying Microsoft a "ransom" for extended support (the price of which doubles every year), companies have gone on a massive shopping spree.
The global PC market has revived, but new "AI PC" class machines are no longer satisfied with 8 GB of RAM. The standard is becoming 16 or 32 GB. This forced hardware refresh cycle acts as a multiplier: more computers are being sold, and each needs several times more memory than its predecessor. It is pouring gasoline on the fire.
5. The Invisible Tax: Energy and Geopolitics
Finally, a factor we most often forget. A chip is essentially electricity enchanted into silicon. Semiconductor production is unimaginably energy-intensive.
In South Korea, industrial electricity prices have risen by 75% over four years. This cost must be passed on to the customer. Add to this the US-China trade war and tariffs raising import prices by another 20-50%, and we get a "hard price floor." Even if demand were to drop, production and logistics costs will not allow prices to return to the levels of years past.
What’s Next?
We are dealing with a "perfect storm." The consumer market has been de facto forced to subsidize the Artificial Intelligence revolution. Every dollar we overpay for RAM today funds the arms race in AI and servers.
Experts have no illusions—the days of cheap memory are gone. Relief might only come around 2027, when new factories come online. I leave you with a question worth asking while looking at store prices:
Are we witnessing a moment where the PC has become "collateral damage" of the AI era, and high component prices are a new, permanent "tax on progress" that we will be paying for years?
Aleksander
FAQ
Why is RAM so expensive in 2025? Top 5 Reasons.
RAM prices have skyrocketed due to a "Perfect Storm" of five factors:
- AI Demand: HBM memory production for AI uses 3x more silicon, eating up capacity for standard DDR5.
- Samsung's Strategy: The top manufacturer shifted capacity to high-margin server memory, limiting consumer supply.
- Energy Costs: A drastic spike in electricity prices (up 75% in Korea) increased manufacturing costs.
- End of Windows 10: Companies are mass-upgrading hardware, driving up global demand.
- Trade Wars: Tariffs and sanctions have blocked the influx of cheap alternatives from China.
When will RAM prices drop? Market Forecast for 2025-2026
The short answer is: not anytime soon. Analysts predict that high RAM prices will persist throughout 2025, with potential relief coming only in the first half of 2026. Waiting for a "price dip" is risky—if you need performance today, buy today.
Is DDR4 still worth buying in 2025, or should I upgrade to DDR5?
Due to a market anomaly where DDR4 prices have caught up with newer DDR5, investing in the old platform no longer makes economic sense. It is only viable for minor repairs. If you are building a new PC or planning a major expansion (e.g., to 64 GB), DDR5 is the only cost-effective choice.
How much RAM do I need for gaming and work in 2025? Is 16GB enough?
Requirements have shifted. In the era of "AI PC" and Windows 11, 16 GB of RAM is the absolute minimum for office work. For comfortable gaming, streaming, and creative workflows, 32 GB of RAM has become the new sweet spot.
About the Author
Dyrektor ds. Technologii w SecurHub.pl
Doktorant z zakresu neuronauki poznawczej. Psycholog i ekspert IT specjalizujący się w cyberbezpieczeństwie.
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